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Sun Bae Kim, general manager of the Asian-Pacific
Economic Research Institute of Goldman Saches, recently
disclosed Goldman Saches' prediction that the impact of SARS
on China would be temporary and might last for around three
months, but not for a long time as some people
estimated.
A latest report presented by Goldman Saches noted
that although China had cut the growth rate of its GDP from
a projected 7.5 percent to 7 percent, it remained optimistic
about China's economy and believed that China's economy
would maintain steady and rapid development.
Sun Bae Kim
presented the following two reasons for the optimistic
prediction made by Goldman Saches:
First, the fact that SARS
has been put under effective control in Hong Kong suggests
that it will not take a long time for the mainland to curb
the epidemic. It took Hong Kong a bit more than a month to
reduce the number of SARS cases to a one-digit figure after
the outbreak of the epidemic in March. The number of SARS
cases in southern China has already plummeted significantly.
At present, the life and work in Hong Kong have returned to
normal, and the operation of local hotels, markets and
public traffic has been revived. The Chinese Government has
attached great importance to controlling the disease and
adopted many effective measures. This indicates that SARS
will be put under control on China's mainland in a
relatively short period of time.
Second, the Yangtze River
Delta, the main destination of foreign investment in China,
is little affected by SARS. China lacks first-rate medical
equipment. But this will not impede China from controlling
the spread of SARS. Viet Nam has become the first country to
successfully control SARS as announced by the World Health
Organization. Viet Nam's medical equipment is not
necessarily better than that of China. SARS mainly affects
China's service and tourism sectors. These sectors, however,
account for only a small proportion of the Chinese economy
(3-5 percent of the GDP).
Sun Bae Kim said although
the risks brought about by SARS should not be ignored,
overreaction to the disease is unnecessary.
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